by Dr Vincent Gray
published August 2002 ISBN 0 906522 14 5 pp. vi + 96 £11.50
Dr Gray's stimulating monograph sets out to challenge the consensus over global warming. As the title suggests, his particular target is the 2001 reports of IPCC Working Groups I, II, and III. Dr Gray argues that while the IPCC has provided a wealth of scientific information on climate, it has not convincingly made its case that increases in carbon dioxide levels are occurring and that increase will have harmful effects. Among his several lines of attack are reflections on the quality and reliability of measurements; views on what weight should be given to different influences on the earth's temperature; the validity of computer modelling in this context.
It is that the 'IPCC consensus' can be so challenged that makes Gray's monograph important, and essential reading for all seriously interested in the issues surrounding climate change and their consequences. If he is right, or even only half-right, that the IPCC consensus relies on poor science and inadequate reasoning, then the policy decisions beginning to flow from that consensus are themselves flawed too. Has gray identified a 'Black Hole' into which millions of public money and future research is being poured?
Dr VINCENT GRAY is a research scientist with a wide experience in five countries (UK, France, Canada, New Zealand and China), in laboratories studying petroleum, plastics, coal, timber, building, and forensic science. He has published widely and for the past 12 years he has specialised in climate science. He is an expert reviewer for the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change.